So I'm super pissed off that Morgan Stanley blocked blogger (what am I going to do at work now since they already blocked facebook earlier?!?!?!), and super pissed off that I got an A- on Equity Valuation. Like wtf, reallly? Was really counting on getting an A for the class. Probably going to ask the professor how he arrived at the grade considering I got A on both midterms, so I assume I didn't do as well on the final. The class was really fucked up as I had to do the valuation project all by my self in a 6 people group. Took me 5 days at work to complete. Ok enough about me..
Anyways, today I'm going to go into the Cash Flows in the Valuations.
So I've talked about the WACC as a discount rate to use in discounting your cash flows from the business. But how exactly do you arrive at the cash flows? Intuitively, it makes sense. The value of the company is simply the cash flows that are paid out to the investors or debt holders, and the company's value lies in these cash flows. Now, the cash flow we are concerned with is the Cash Flow to Firm, which encompasses the cash flow to equity holders as well as debt holders.
First you need the revenues of the firm. Any firm generates revenue... it's bascially the sales of goods or services. From your revenues you need to subtract the expenses to get a profit, or what we call earnings. This is known as the operating earnings, since it is the earnings from the main function of the firm, not taking into taxes or interest. We also call this the Earnings Before Interest and Taxes, or the EBIT. This is what the IRS looks at and taxes, so therefore, if the marginal corporate tax rate is 40%, what the company ends up retaining is 60%. So therefore, we take EBIT(1-Tax Rate) to arrive one step closer to our cash flow to firm.
It's important to know that we are not finished here! There are many charges that are not CASH outflows or inflows, just accounting measures so we need to adjust for them. We need to add back depreciation and amortization since they are taken out of the earnings, yet no cash was paid for these expenses. We need to subtract capital expenditures since accountants feel like capital expenditures add value back to the firm, so they are not subtracted out of earnings, yet cash was paid for these investments. Lastly, we need to subtract the change in net working capital. Any increases in net working capital ties up cash to the company, and we need to subtract it out of our after-tax operating earnings.
Therefore, our formula should be as follows: Free Cash Flow to Firm = EBIT(1-Marginal Tax Rate) + depreciation and amortization - capital expenditures - change in net working capital.
Our company valuation will be the sum of all the Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) from year 1 to year infinity (since the company will be assumed to be existence forever), but discounted properly by the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).
Mathematically, the value of the company works out to be the FCFF / (WACC - growth rate of the company). Keep in mind that since we are using the FCFF and the WACC (as opposed to the Free Cash Flow to Equity, and the Cost of Equity), this is the value of the company as a whole, not only to equity holders but also to debt holders.
All this may seem dry and boring, but there are real life applications to this! For example, http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/32/nba08_NBA-Team-Valuations_Rank.html is an article by Forbes about the Valuations of different NBA Teams, with the New York Knicks valued at $613 million. I can count on it that Forbes used the same method to arrive at these valuations!