History repeats itself

Why is it not obvious that what's happening in Egypt is a repeat of what happened in Iranian Revolution / fall of the Shah in 1979? My prediction that one of two things will happen, with the last one being a joke:

1. "Orderly transition" which probably involves Mubarak stepping down -- appointing someone else to take over who is non-religious affliated / non-extremist / US-sympathetic. These protestors will not stop until Mubarak steps down. The tipping point has been reached and there's no way to stop it unless what the masses get what they want (or think they want). As much as I sympathize with Mubarak, he had 30 years to do something, and hasn't. I think stepping down in an orderly transition is the smarter thing to do without completely ruining Egypt and allowing for chaos and a potential coup.

2. Mubarak doesn't step down. Protest goes on for weeks. Mubarak loses the allegiance of the army. There is utter chaos and the Muslim Brotherhood organizes itself together to take over. Mubarak is thrown out by force. Coptic Christian Egyptians flee Egypt to escape persecution. Israel loses its biggest ally in the middle east. Someone bombs Israel and World War 3 commences.

3. ElBaradei takes over. HAHA yeah right - that tool wished.